17世纪日本2次重大台风事件的路径重建

Reconstruction of 2 significant typhoon paths in the 17th century Japan

西北太平洋地区,特别是中日两国为台风灾害多发区,这些地区的台风路径变化会带来深刻的影响。日本明治维新以前基本上不存在定量气象资料,只能靠历史文献重建台风事件。日本17世纪史料有限,利用史料的同时,还利用器测时期的台风记录推测了历史时期台风路径及其规模。本文重建了1650年9月11日和1674年9月15—17日影响日本的台风大致路径。通过台风个案的重建,明确了现有汇编资料收录不全的问题,发现了各藩公用日记等未利用史料。在不存在风向变化等详细记录的条件下,重建台风路径时可以适度关注其"危险半圆"。同一次影响中日两国的台风路径都偏北,基本上不登陆九州。重建华东沿海地区台风灾害事件时,需要考虑涌潮事件的存在。

Westem North Pacific （WNP）, especially China and Japan included, is a typhoon-prone area. Change of typhoon tracks in this area would raise acute influence. There are almost no quantitative meteorological data existed in Japan before Meiji Restoration, typhoon events can only be rebuilt with historical documents. There are a limited number of historical documents in the 17th century in Japan, author also used typhoon records in the modem instrumental observation period at the same time of using historical documents and speculated the historical typhoon tracks and its size. In the context of global climate change, there is currently no consensus whether typhoon trajectory in the East Asia will be changes. Through the reconstruction of typhoon tracks on the history, we can have in-depth discussion of this issue. Author has estimated typhoon track influenced on Japan on 11 Sep., AD 1650 and 15 to 17 Sep., AD 1674. The main disaster-causing factor of the typhoon influenced on Japan on 11 Scp., AD 1650 was the tides; the worst-hit area was the northern coast of the Ariake-kai bay. The typhoon paths influenced on Japan on 17-18 Sep., AD 1828, 25 Aug., AD 1914 and 27 Sep., AD 1991 similar to this typhoon, those typhoon also caused tidal disaster in the Ariake-kai. Typhoons influenced on the Ariake-kai frequently from now Yamaguchi Prefecture into the sea, this typhoon also about 3-5 hours after landed into the Sea of Japan. The effect area of the typhoon influenced on Japan on 15 to 17 Sep., AD 1674 was wide, much of the Western half of Japan and the Eastern half which of nearly the typhoon track had caused wind damage; some places of the Eastern half of Japan also had caused flood damage. This is typical disaster situation of typhoon in Japan. This typhoon from the Northern Kyushu region to the Hokuriku region took about lday. On the basis of reconstruction of the typhoon case study, author make clear that the existing compilation data were embodied incompletely and there are unused historical data such as the public diary at the feudal clan. Under the conditions of no wind-direction- changes and other detailed records, we should keep an eye on its ＂dangerous semicircle＂ moderately while rebuilding the typhoon tracks. The tracks of typhoons that affect China and Japan tend to the north and almost no landed in Kyushu. Reconstruction of East China coastal typhoon disasters needs to bring tidal bore events into consideration.