1815—1869年影响浙北地区台风序列重建与路径分析

Reconstructing of historical typhoon frequency and analysis of typhoon paths influcing northern Zhejiang from 1815 to 1869 AD

利用清代日记资料中的天气信息,参考现代定义,通过制定影响浙北地区台风的辨识标准,识别出了1815至1869年间影响浙北地区的60次台风。重建了影响浙北地区台风发生频次序列,发现1823—1835年和1848—1861年间频次偏高。根据台风影响下地面风向转变规律,利用日记中的风向记录判断出32次台风相对于浙北地区的行进路径,其中1835至1844年与1850至1861年两个时段内自浙北以东北行的台风明显多于浙北以南登陆西北行的台风,可能与这两个时段台风发生偏晚,副高位置已经东撤有关。使用日记资料,结合方志与档案,重建了1857年的双台风和1861年的干台风事件。研究表明,利用古代日记中的天气信息能大大提高历史台风研究的准确度与分辨率。

Referring to modern definition of typhoon influencing northern Zhejiang, the criterions for identifying historical typhoon on weather information extracted from different diaries of Qing Dynasty were confirmed. According to weather information from diaries, typhoon activities occurred 60 times from 1815 to 1869 AD. Series of historical typhoon frequency was reconstructed, which showed that typhoon occurred more frequently in the period from 1823 to 1835 and period from 1848 to 1861. Based on wind direction records in diaries, paths of 32 typhoons were judged in accordance with the law of wind rotation. And it was showed that most typhoons going past east of this area in the period from 1835 to1844 and period from1850 to 1861, because most typhoons arrived late when Subtropical High had extended eastward. By associated with local records and official documents in Qing Dynasty, the paper reconstructed two typhoon processes, binary typhoons in 1857 and a dry typhoon in 1861. It is clear that using weather information in ancient diaries can improve accuracy and resolution of historical typhoon research greatly.