摘要
本文以36个工业行业为研究对象,基于双因素EGARCH-M模型系统分析了原油价格波动的非对称影响。研究结果表明,石油加工炼焦业等13个行业负向关联,基础资源采掘行业等6个行业正向关联;烟草制品业等17个行业关联性不强;31个行业利润变化呈非对称效应,7个行业的利润变化存在杠杆效应。因势利导,推动油价脱钩,有利于实现能源及其产业结构的共同优化;有效干预,规范定价机制,是健全石油战略储备和保障能源安全的有效途径。
Based on two factors EGARCH-M model system, it analyzes the asymmetry effects of crude oil price fluctuations.The results show that there is a significant heterogeneity effect for industry of crude oil price volatility.Crude oil price has a negative correlation with 13 industries, such as petroleum processing and coking industry; positive correlation with foundation and other six resource extraction industries; no strong correlation with 17 industries such as tobacco industry; asymmetrical effect change with 31 industries’profits.And there is a leveraged effect in seven industries’ profit.Taking advantage of the trends to push oil price decoupling is conducive to opti-mize energy and industrial structure.Taking effective intervention policy to standardize pricing mechanism is an effective way to improve the country’s oil reserves strategy.
出处
《中国科技论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第10期120-125,共6页
Forum on Science and Technology in China
基金
国家自然科学基金"小样本非等距灰色预测模型建模及其应用研究"(71301061)
中央高校专项(2015JDZD11)
