基于自回归滑动平均模型的风电功率预测

Wind Power Prediction Based on Auto-regressive and Moving Average Model

针对风电功率的波动性及不可控性等问题,提出基于自回归滑动平均(ARMA)模型的风电预测方法。基于风速序列的时序性和相关性建立ARMA模型,利用该模型进行风电功率的预测。结合某风电厂的风电数据对该预测模型进行分析和验证,结果表明,提出的基于ARMA模型的风电预测方法能够有效地对风电功率进行预测。

In view of the fluctuation and uncontrollability of wind power, a method of predicting wind power based on auto- regressive and moving average(ARMA) model was put forward. ARMA model was established based on the timing and correlation of wind speed sequence, and the prediction of wind power was implemented by using the model. The prediction model was analyzed and verified with wind power data of a wind power plant.Results show that the proposed wind power prediction method based on ARMA model can effectively predict the wind power.