广州T.I.T创意产业园土地利用结构演化的系统动力学分析

The System Dynamic Analysis of Land Utilization Structure Evolution for Guangzhou T.I.T Creative Industrial Park

研究目的:探讨广州T.I.T创意产业园区土地利用规模与结构随产业改变而变化的演变过程,并预测土地利用发展变化中的三个阶段(传统产业用地阶段、新型创意产业阶段以及后产业阶段)土地利用的发展战略趋势。研究方法:土地利用结构演化的系统动力学建模方法。研究结果:(1)传统产业用地规模及后产业用地规模在未来20年的土地规模变化总趋势为波动上升,而新型创意产业阶段的用地规模变化呈波动下降走势,三阶段的土地扩张速率变化差异在预测期不断扩大;(2)随着三阶段推进,土地类型向着多元化与均衡化发展,土地功能向着以耐心资本为代表的延伸式功能过渡,土地空间布局向片区组合方向演进。研究结论:传统产业(纺织轻工业)用地规模遵循"慢速扩张—急速扩张—慢速扩张—慢速回缩"路径;新型创意产业的用地规模呈现"急速扩张—慢速扩张—急速回缩—慢速回缩"的路径;后产业阶段则遵循"整体强势扩张"的发展路径,具有"高能生产型社区"意义。产业路径选择及"人"的因素在土地利用过程中的地位日益凸显,对创意产业园的土地利用结构及规模选择起到关键影响作用。

The purpose of the study is to explore the evolution process of land utilization scale and spatial structure under the background of different industries influence in Guangzhou T.I.T~ creative industrial park. Meanwhile, making prediction of the study case land utilization strategy trends in different stages （conventional industry stage, new-type creative industry stage and post-industry stage respectively） becomes another research point. The research method mainly applies an exploration for multidimensional land allocation structure pattern and constructs a land allocation structure SD simulation model, which emphasizes on the system dynamic field. The result shows that 1 ）The predictable general trends of conventional industry production land utilization scale and post-industrial land utilization scale are both wavy increasing over the 20 years predictive period, while new-type creative industry production land utilization scale shows a decreasing trend in predictive period, the discrepancy of three stage land expansion rate gradually increasing as predictive time expanding. 2） With the evolution of three stages, land type tend to show the features of diversity and equality, the land function began to peel from the traditional role towards an extensional role which represented by patient capital, land spatial layout is transiting towards area combination land and taking the indirect impact entities （such as community） into consideration, which can be explained a kind of output of social benefits. Broadly speaking, the conventional industr/al land utilization scale expansion follows path of ＂slow spreading-fast spreading -slow spreading-slow retraction＂. However, new - type creative industrial land utilization scale expansion follows the ＂fast spreading-slow spreading = fast retraction-slow retraction＂ path. Whereas, post-industrial land utilization scale expansion follows ＂mighty spreading＂ path that owns feature of high-intelligence production community. Industry path selection and the ＂human＂ factors in the process of land utilization status is increasingly highlight, which leads that those two parts play essential roles in the development of creative industrial park. The paper has a guiding significance in the selection of priority land utilization structure and type in development process. The paper reveals that which kind of land allocation sub-block structure fit the sustainable development of T.I.TR in the future. We look forward to exploring the relative optimal state of the land spatial usage.