江西省经济增长中能源消费与碳排放的预测分析——基于非线性灰色伯努利模型

Forecast Analysis of Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions in Economic Growth of Jiangxi Province——Based on Nonlinear Gray Bernoulli Model

使用非线性灰色伯努利模型预测了2014-2022年江西省能源消费与碳排放的量值,整体而言,江西省的能源消费总量和碳排放总量在增长率呈现下降的趋势。非线性灰色伯努利模型具有较好的预测能力,预测发现到2022年江西省的能源消费量达到11 060.1万吨标准煤,碳排放达到6 282.4万吨;从2014年到2022年江西省能源消费量的年均增长率为4.06%,碳排放量的年均增长率为3.11%。

This article uses the nonlinear gray Bernoulli model to predict the energy consumption and carbon emissions in Jiangxi province in 2014 - 2022. As a whole, in Jiangxi province, the total energy consumption and carbon emissions in the growth rate show a trend of decline. Nonlinear gray Bernoulli model has good prediction ability, forecasting in 2022 in Jiangxi province the energy consumption will reach 110.601 million tons of standard coal and carbon emissions 62.824 million tons; From 2014 to 2022 in Jiangxi province, the average annual growth rate of energy consumption will be 4.06%, and the annual growth rate of carbon emissions will be 3.11% .