气候谈判集团的演化过程与演变趋势分析

Evolution Process and Trend of Climate Negotiation Groups

首先对气候谈判集团的发展和演变过程进行了系统的分析,并根据不同阶段的特征,将其演化过程划分为四个阶段。接着从政治干预、科学认知和利益驱动三个方面对影响气候谈判集团成员立场的因素进行了归纳,在此基础上对欧盟、伞形集团、七十七国集团+中国的谈判立场未来演变趋势进行了分析,并得出了以下结论:1)现有的三大气候谈判集团将呈现不同的分化趋势;2)未来共同的利益驱动将是决定今后各国气候谈判立场和气候谈判集团重组的关键;3)区域和跨区域合作组织开始在气候合作领域发挥作用,对气候谈判集团的演化产生影响。

This study systematically analyzed the development and evolution process of climate negotiation groups, and divided its evolution process into four stages according to the characteristics of different stages. Then we summarized the factors that influenced the standpoint of members of climate negotiation groups from three aspects political intervention, science cognition and driving interest. On the basis of the above, we analyzed the future evolution trend of the European Union, the Umbrella Group and the Group of 77 plus China and drew the following conclusions： （1） the existing three Climate negotiation groups will show differentiated trends; （2） mutual interests will be the key to the future recombination of climate negotiation groups; （3） regional and cross-regional cooperation organizations begin to play a role in climate cooperation and influence the evolution of climate negotiation groups.