中美非对称相互依赖与权力变迁的实证分析

Empirical Analysis of the asymmetric interdependence and power changes between China and USA

中美之间存在非对称相互依赖的关系,主要反映在外交、贸易、投资、经济自由化与技术等领域,不过这种非对称相互依赖正随美国世界霸权地位的逐渐削弱、中国世界政治经济地位的渐趋增强而发生演变。文章通过构建声誉模型,试图阐释中美非对称相互依赖及其权力变迁的过程。文章认为这一过程可以分为美国占绝对优势、显著优势、相对明显优势、比较优势四个阶段。根据国际政治经济学理论,文章指出两国非对称相互依赖及其权力变迁的根本原因在于两国政治与市场的交互影响、要素比较优势的动态差异,其中市场体量尤其是中国市场体量是决定中美权力资源配置的关键要素。虽然目前在中美双边关系中美国仍处于有利位势,但是中国的权力位势正在逐步增加。文章通过格兰杰因果检验证实,中美政治权力与经济权力存在双向因果关系,这种关系是推动中美权力变迁的内在动力。文章认为,中美外交关系的改善、中国经济自由化的扩大、投资权力的增强和技术实力的上升,有助于增强中国在国际上的政治与经济权力;中方应抓住非对称相互依赖变迁中有利于中国变化的趋势,积极推进对美合作共赢战略,将中美关系引向对称依赖方向发展。

There is asymmetric interdependent relationship between China and America,which principally is reflected in multiple fields such as diplomacy,trade,investment,economic liberalization and technology. However,along with gradual weakening of American world hegemony,the world political and economical status of China has been gradually enhanced andevolved. By building reputation model,this article tries to expound Sino-U. S. asymmetric interdependence evolution process and power shift,which could be classified into four stages: America occupying absolute advantage,distinct advantage,relatively obvious advantage and comparative advantage. Based upon international economics and comparative advantage theory,the article points out the fundamental cause of Sino-U. S. asymmetric interdependence and power is bilateral political and market interaction,comparative advantage of dynamic differences,in which market volume especially Chinese market volume is the key element in the allocation of Sino-U. S. power resource. For the Sino-US bilateral relations,although the United States still has a good potential,China's power potential is gradually increasing. According to Granger Cause test's result,this paper affirms that there is a two-way causal relationship between Sino-U. S. political power and economic power,which is the inner driving force to promote Sino-U. S. power change. Meantime,improving Sino-U. S. diplomatic relations,expanding Chinese economic liberalization,reinforcing Chinese investment power and enhancing technology strength would contribute to boost Chinese international political & economic power.