基于G20评估体系的中国宏观经济失衡测度——兼论中国外部失衡治理的影响因素

Measuring Chinese Macroeconomic Imbalance under G20 Evaluating System: A Study on Factors of Chinese Trade Rebalance

文章利用G20华盛顿会议提出的评估一国宏观经济失衡的指标体系，对2003～2012年中国总体及内外经济失衡进行测度，结果显示：在内部失衡相对偏高的影响下，中国经济总体失衡依然严重，但自2008年后中国外部失衡正逐步改善，并使总体失衡有所减轻。然而实证检验发现：这一时期中国外部失衡改善仍是一种受金融危机影响的被动调整，其主要来自刺激经济增长情况下中国财政赤字的增加、国内金融深化程度提升、金融危机影响下中国经济增长及进出口增速减慢，中国需在防范外部失衡调整风险和增加实际利益基础上，以内部失衡治理为主，适当控制外部失衡。

By the use of macroeconomic imbalance measurement index system from G20 Washington D. C meeting,this article measures Chinese economic imbalance from 2003 ~ 2012. The result is that Chinese macroeconomic imbalance is still serious because of higher level of domestic imbalance. However,with the ease of external imbalance since 2008,the degree of Chinese macroeconomic imbalance is reduced. Chinese external imbalance adjustment is a kind of passive adjustment influenced by financial crisis.Rebalance's reason is that fiscal deficit is improved,Chinese financial deepening is improved,the speed of Chinese GDP growth,import and export growth is reduced. So China should mainly adjust internal imbalance and properly reduce external imbalance to protect the real interests.