中国经济增长影响到国际油价了吗?

Did Economic Growth of China Affect International Prices of Oil?

随着中国经济的日益发展和对原油消费的增长，一些国外学者将2008年原油价格的急剧上升归咎于中国经济。事实究竟是否如此？文章将脉冲响应函数与残差序列相结合，构建变量波动因素的时点分解方法，利用1994～2012年间的月度数据，分析中国经济在国际原油价格波动中的作用。研究发现，中国经济未对近年，特别是2008年飙升的国际油价产生影响，而投机因素和OECD的需求因素对国际油价的影响最为显著。进一步研究发现油价升降的非对称性因素为：国际油价上升一般仅由投机因素引起，但其下降则既包含投机因素，又包含需求因素。

Due to the economic growth in China and the large scale of consumption demands for oil,some overseas scholars think this revolution of Chinese economy is related to the increasing price of crude oil in 2008. This paper combines impulse response functions and residual sequences to structure time point decomposition methods,and utilizes the monthly data of 1994 ~ 2012 to analyze the role of economy of China in international oil price fluctuations. In contrast to the viewpoints of some overseas scholars,the research results show that demand shocks attributable to Chinese economy did not affect oil prices in recent years,especially in 2008,and indicate that demand shocks of speculation and OECD had notable effects on the real price of oil. Furthermore,this paper finds that oil prices increasing is caused only by demand shocks of speculation,but oil prices decreasing is caused both by demand shocks of speculation and OECD.