社会网络促进我国对外贸易了吗?——基于移民网络视角的检验

Does the Social Network Promote China's Foreign Trade? : Tests from on the Emigrant Network Perspective

文章利用1980年、1990年、2000年和2010年我国与118个国家的移民与贸易数据，基于最新发展的引力模型理论和泊松拟最大似然估计法（PPML）重新检验了移民网络对我国对外贸易发展的推动作用。结果发现：我国移民网络的确促进了贸易，并且这一作用主要借由移民网络影响贸易的直接通道效应，而不是间接通道效应；从时间趋势来看，20世纪80～90年代移民对我国贸易的促进作用非常大，进入21世纪后这一作用稍稍变小；移民网络对我国与非同种语言国家的贸易促进作用是共同语言国家的36倍。

The role of social networks and its relevanceto trade has become a hot issue in research. In this paper,we examine the role of emigrant network on the development of China's foreign trade based on the recent gravity model and the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood approach using China's and other 118 countries' trade data of the year 1980,1990,2000 and 2010. Our results show that:( 1) The Chinese emigrant network has a vital catalytic role in China's foreign trade,and this effect is mainly affected through direct channels of emigrant network rather than indirect channel effect;( 2) The trade promoting effect of Chinese emigrant network is very strong from the 1980 s to 1990s; This effect becomes weaker after twenty-first Century.( 3) The positive effect of emigrant network on the trade between China and its trading partners with different languages is 36 times of that between China and its partners with same language.