基于带约束动态最优化模型的土地发展权价值及其影响因素分析

Analysis of the Value of Land Development Rights and its Influencing Factors Based on Dynamic Optimization Model with Constraints

本文首先构建基于带约束动态最优化模型的土地发展权价值模型,得出土地发展权价值的表达式,根据该表达式并结合现有研究文献提出土地发展权价值的影响因素,然后运用空间动态计量模型对土地发展权价值影响因素进行分析。本文的研究表明:土地利用规划对土地指标的限制增强,将会使土地发展权的价值有所降低;土地利用规划对土地指标的限制减弱,将会使土地发展权的价值有所增加。各宏观经济变量对土地发展权价值的影响方向要通过该变量对建设用地产出、农业用地产出和单位土地转化成本影响的强弱综合判定。土地利用规划指标和宏观经济变量对土地发展权价值的影响具有时空动态效应。中央政府每年下达的土地指标是产生土地发展权价值的关键因素,国家需要逐步取消土地指标审批和年度计划管理制度,建立中央和地方权责对等的现代土地管理责任制度。

This paper first constructs the model on the value of land development rights with constrained dynamic optimization model, and obtains the expressions for the value of land development rights. Then, this paper puts forward the influencing factors of land development rights combined with existing literatures, then analyzes the influencing factors using the spatial dynamic model based on four different weight matrix. This study shows that enhancing the limit of land use planning to land index will reduce the value of land development rights, and vice versa. The impact of macroeconomic variables on the value of land development rights is through the strength of unit output of construction land, agricultural land and the unit cost of land conversion. The effect of land use planning and macroeconomic variables on the value of land development right has the temporal and spatial dynamic effect. The land index the central government issued each year is the key factor of the value of land development rights, China needs to gradually abolish the land indicators for approval and annual planning management system, and to establish the system of modern land management with peer to peer responsibilities between central land local governments.