微博舆情跨域周期波动实证研究

An Empirical Research on Periodic Fluctuation of Public Opinion on Microblogging and Other Domains

以生命周期理论为基础,将微博舆情周期与触发事件客观因素周期相联系,进行线上线下的跨域周期波动研究,提出一整套研究思路和研究方法,并以微博雾霾事件为例进行实证分析,考察了思路的可行性,实证结论揭示了微博雾霾舆情周期与客观因素周期之间的互动规律,提出微博舆情预测模型。深化了微博舆情周期理论,并为微博舆情预警提供了新思路,在理论性和实用性方面都具有重要价值。

Combining the period of microblogging public opinion and the period of objective factors triggering the microblogging events, this paper conducts a cross-field research on periodic fluctuation of online and offline. The paper puts forward a complete set of research ideas and research methods, and conducts an empirical research to test the feasibility of the ideas, taking the haze event on microblogging as an example. The conclusion implies the interactive roles between the periods of microblogging public opinion and objective factors, and proposes a microblogging public opinion forecasting model. The study deepens the theory of periodic microblogging public opinion, and provides a new way for the early warning of microblogging public opinion, and the paper has significant values in both theoretical and practical aspects.