长三角地区技术进步偏向的测算与分析

Measurement and Analysis of Technical Progress Bias in Yangtz River Delta Regions

利用长三角地区1978—2012年的数据,定量测度江苏、上海、浙江两省一市的技术进步偏向。结果表明:两省一市的资本劳动替代弹性均显著小于1,劳动效率持续上升,资本效率有所下降,技术进步大体偏向资本。具体讲,长三角地区技术进步偏向资本的程度比全国平均水平更高,技术进步偏向指数波动幅度更大;上海市技术进步偏向资本的程度最小,仅为浙江省和江苏省的一半左右;江苏省和上海市技术进步偏向的变化趋势整体上与全国基本一致。长三角地区显著的资本偏向型技术进步极有可能深度辐射中西部地区。

This paper measures technical progress bias of Jiangsu,Shanghai and Zhejiang（two provinces and one city）quantitatively with data of Yangtze River Delta regions from 1978 to 2012.The result shows that the elasticity of substitution of both capital and labor in these two provinces and one city is less than 1,labor efficiency increases continuously,capital efficiency decreases and technical progress is generally biased toward capital.Specifically,the degree of technical progress bias toward capital in Yangtze River Delta region is higher than the national average level and technical progress bias index has a greater fluctuation range;the degree of technical progress bias toward capital in Shanghai is minimum,only about half of that in Zhejiang and Jiangsu;the variation trend of technical progress bias in Jiangsu and Shanghai is consistent with the national trend.It is very likely that the significant capital biased technical progress in Yangtze River Delta regions will influence central and western regions deeply.