2013年甘肃省手足口病空间分布特征研究

Spatial distribution of hand foot and mouth disease in Gansu,2013

目的了解甘肃省2013年手足口病空间分布特征,探讨手足口病发病高聚集区域。方法利用Geo Da1.60软件进行全局和局部空间自相关分析,分析指标选择Moran's I系数,采用Flexible 3.1和Sa TScan 9.0软件进行不规则和规则空间扫描,利用Arc GIS 9.3软件在地图上呈现发病聚集区域。结果甘肃省2013年手足口病发病分布呈显著的聚集性分布(P<0.01)。局部自相关分析结果显示,手足口病发病的热点区域主要是兰州市的部分县(区)、天水市的麦积区和酒泉市的瓜州县,冷点区域主要分布在金昌市、临夏州、甘南州、定西市、陇南市的部分县(区)。空间扫描分析显示,高发病率最大可能聚集区为兰州市和白银市的部分县(区)(P<0.01),次可能聚集区域为天水市和酒泉市的部分县(区)(P<0.01)。结论甘肃省2013年手足口病报告发病率存在空间聚集性,针对本次研究所确定的聚集区域,应采取有效的防控措施,加强健康教育,防止暴发疫情的发生,同时关注重点区域的监测,及时发出预测预警信息,最大程度的控制手足口病的传播和扩散。

Objective To understand the spatial distribution of hand foot and mouth disease（ HFM D） in Gansu province in 2013,and discuss the HFM D prevention and control in areas with high incidences. Methods Software Geo Da 1. 60 was used to conduct spatial local and overall autocorrelation analysis,and Moran＇s I Ratio was used as analysis index. Software Flexible V3. 1 and Sa TScan 9. 0 were used to conduct regular and irregular spatial scan and software Arc GIS 9. 3 was used to show the high aggregation areas of HFM D incidence on map. Results The spatial aggregation of HFM D was obvious in Gansu in 2013（ P 0. 01）. The local autocorrelation analysis showed that the hot spots of HFM D incidence were mainly at some counties or districts of Lanzhou,Maiji district of Tianshui and Guazhou county of Jiuquan,while the cold spots were mainly at Jinchang,linxia,Gannan,Dingxi and some counties and districts of Longnan. The most aggregation areas with high incidence were some counties and districts of Lanzhou and Baiyin（ P 0. 01）; while the less possible aggregation areas were some counties and districts of Tianshui and Jiuquan（ P 0. 01）. Conclusion Spatial aggregation was observed in the incidence of HFMD in Gansu in 2013. According to the results of this study,effective measures should be taken to strengthen health education and prevent the outbreak of HFM D. Attention should paid to hot spots monitoring and early warning to control the transmission of HFM D.