2008-2013年浙江省湖州市传染病自动预警系统运行效果评价

Performance of automatic early warning system of communicable diseases in Huzhou,Zhejiang,2008-2013

目的了解湖州市传染病自动预警信息系统在传染病暴发早期探测的应用情况及效果,为进一步完善和优化预警系统提供依据。方法采用描述流行病学方法对2008 2013年湖州市传染病自动预警系统生成的预警信号、预警病种、响应时间、核实方式、灵敏度和阳性预测值等进行分析。结果 2008 2013年,预警系统共发出预警信号4395条,信号响应率为100%,24 h内信号响应率为89.08%。预警信号数与法定传染病网络报告病例数呈正相关,r=0.840(P<0.01)。涉及23种传染病,核实方式以综合分析为主,占74.47%。54条预警信号被判断为疑似事件,经过现场调查共确认暴发11起,预警系统的灵敏度为69.23%,预测值为0.25%。结论传染病自动预警系统运行良好,预警系统灵敏度较高,可初步实现传染病暴发早期自动预警,但预警系统的阳性值较低,仍需进一步优化。

Objective To evaluate the performance of the automatic early warning system of communicable diseases in Huzhou and provide evidence for the further improvement of the early warning system. Methods Descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of communicable disease automatic early warning system in Huzhou from 2008 to 2013. Results A total of 4395 warning signals were generated during this period. The signal response rate was 100%,and the 24 h signal response rate was 89. 08%. There was positive relationship between warning signal number and the case number reported by communicable diseases reporting network（ P 0. 01）,r = 0. 840. Moreover,23 kinds of communicable diseases were involved,and the verification of the signals was mainly through comprehensive analysis,accounting for 74. 47%. In addition,54 warning signals were classified as suspected events,in which 11 were finally identified as outbreaks through field investigation. The sensitivity and the positive predicting value of the early warning system were 69. 23% and 0. 25% respectively. Conclusion The sensitivity of the automatic warning system of communicable diseases was high,but the positive predicting value was low in Huzhou.Further improvements are needed.