不确定性、会计稳健性与分析师盈余预测

Uncertainty,Conservatism and Analyst Forecasts

文章在考察企业不确定因素对分析师盈余预测产生影响的基础上,重点分析和检验企业会计稳健性对这一关系的调节效应。研究显示,一方面,不确定因素的增多会导致分析师盈余预测误差和预测分歧度的增大;另一方面,公司在预测年份里的会计稳健性总体上有助于降低不确定因素对分析师盈余预测的不利影响。文章将预测年份里的会计稳健性进一步区分为"持续稳健"和"非持续稳健"之后发现,并非所有在预测年份里表现稳健的公司,其稳健性就能遏制不确定性对分析师预测的不利影响,而是只有"持续稳健"能够有效抑制不确定性加剧分析师预测误差和预测分歧度的趋势,"非持续稳健"则没能发挥上述作用。

This paper investigates the empirical relationship between conservatism and analyst forecasts behavior of listed companies under uncertainty. This study shows that on the one hand,the greater the uncertainty,the greater the difficulty for analyst forecasts which shows the increase in earnings forecast errors and divergence. On the other hand,the accounting conservatism in the forecast year can help to reduce the he adverse effect of uncertainty on analyst earnings forecasts in general. After subdividing the accounting conservatism into 'persistent conservatism' and'non- persistent conservatism',we find that only the persistent conservative accounting policies can significantly inhibit the adverse effect of uncertainty on analyst earnings forecasts,but the'non- persistent conservatism' can not effectively curb the adverse impact of uncertainty on analyst earnings forecasts.