中央银行货币政策信息沟通的预期引导效应

The Expected Guiding Effect of Information Communication of the Monetary Policy of Central Bank

我国中央银行货币政策信息沟通总体上能够对通胀预期产生顺应既定调控方向的政策效应,且口头沟通的影响效果要强于书面沟通,但这种引导效应的传导既受限于其他影响通胀预期形成的宏观经济变量波动,又具有较明显的时滞性特征。因此,我国应提高基础统计金融数据的编制质量,增强货币政策信息的可信度与准确度,完善货币政策信息的沟通内容,构建多层次、全方位的双向货币政策信息沟通体系,注重不同货币政策信息沟通方式的有效结合,强调货币政策信息沟通与其他货币政策工具的合理搭配,提升沟通策略的可信性、灵活性与及时性。

In general,the information communication of the monetary policy of central bank in China can generate the policy effect complying with the established regulation orientation for inflation expectation and the influence of verbal communication is stronger than that of written communication.However,the transmission of this guiding effect is limited by fluctuation of other macroeconomic variables affecting the formation of inflation expectation and has the obvious feature of time lag.Therefore,China should improve the quality of compilation of financial data of basic statistics,enhance the credibility and accuracy of monetary policies,perfect the communication contents of monetary policy information,build a multi-level and all-round two-way communication system of monetary policy information,pay attention to the organic integration of different communication methods of monetary policy information,stress rational combination of monetary policy information communication and other monetary policy tools and improve the credibility,flexibility and timeliness of communication strategies.