中国煤层气产业发展影响因素分析

Analysis of Constraining Development Factors in Disappointed and Promising China Coalbed Methane Industry

煤层气开发利用"十二五"规划提出:到2015年,煤层气产量达到300×108m3。根据2014年的实际产量,《能源发展战略行动计划(2014—2020年)》对煤层气产业发展目标进行了修订:到2020年,煤层气产量力争超过300×108m3。基于中国煤层气产业发展现状,在德尔菲法收集影响煤层气产业发展指标的基础上,经主成分分析与因子分析确认,人力资本、企业实力、行业环境、"互联网+"基础是目前制约中国煤层气产业发展的4个因子。中国应加快培养煤层气专业人才,尽快形成煤层气解吸—扩散—渗流—产出过程每个环节的动力学过程以及全过程系统动力学过程理论体系,形成基于煤层气基岩性质的压裂排采机理,奠定煤层气勘探开发技术体系及后续开发工艺标准体系的理论基础。

The 12th Five-Year Plan for CBM development and utilization points out that the production of coalbed methane will be reached 30 billion cubic meters in 2015, yet the national"Energy Development Strategy Action Plan (2014-2020 )"revised the de-velopment goals for CBM industry:By 2020, coal-bed methane production will be striven to exceed 30 billion cubic meters.Faced with the revised targets, the CBM industry was embarrassed.Based on the current development of China’s CBM industry, Delphi method is used to get the indicators of affecting the development of CBM industry; principal component is determined with principal component analysis ( P.C.A.) , and factors distinguished with factors analysis ( F.A.) .The latent composite factors affecting the development of CBM industry are expressed as human capital, enterprise power, industry environment and internet plus.Following on the latent composite factors, personnel training&setting up the theory system of CBM dis-absorbing→diffusing→percolation→flowing, as well as proposing fracture mechanics will contribute to form the CBM exploring&exploiting technology as well as practice standard.