影子银行体系影响了货币政策的传导机制吗?

Does Shadow Banking System Affect the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy?

本文选取了2002—2014年宏观经济的月度与季度数据作为研究样本,以影子银行体系与货币政策传导机制为研究对象,重点考察了影子银行体系对传统的利率传导机制的宏观效应,并进一步剖析了产生这一现象的原因。研究结果表明:一是在2008年国际金融危机之后,影子银行体系对传统的利率传导机制产生了显著影响,表现为利率水平对产出缺口的影响效力明显下降,而影子银行体系对产出缺口的影响效力日益增强;二是利率传导机制受到抑制的原因主要在于市场利率变动对贷款创造的影响出现了明显的下降;三是除金融抑制的大环境之外,中国过于频繁变动的宏观经济政策是影子银行体系产生与发展最为重要的原因。

Using China＇s monthly and quarterly macroeconomic data during 2002-2014, this paper empirically examines the impact of shadow banking system （SBS） on the interest rate transmission mechanism and further analyzes the causality behind this phenomenon by introducing shadow banking system and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The results show that, first, after the global financial crisis of 2008, the SBS has a significant impact on the traditional interest rate transmission mechanism, that is the significance of the interest rate elasticity of output decreasing and the significance of the SBS elasticity of output increasing; second, the reason of the restrained interest rate transmission mechanism mainly lies in that the impact of changes in market interest rates on the creation of loans is decreasing significantly; third, despite of the financial repression in China, frequently changes ofmacroeconomic policy are the most important causes to the generation and development of the SBS