贸易项下的“热钱”流入规模估算方法新探

A New Approach for Calculating the Inflow Volume of “hot money”under Trade Account

近年,"热钱"流入成为国内学术界广泛关注和深入探讨的热点问题。由于关于如何界定"热钱",国内学者仍存有争议,因而尚没有形成对"热钱"规模估算的统一口径与标准方法。常规的"热钱"估算方法主要分直接法与间接法,但这两种方法还无法有效测算隐藏于贸易项下的"热钱"规模,而这正是目前"热钱"进出国内市场的最主要渠道。为此,本文从学理视角,提出了如何估算贸易项下隐藏的"热钱"规模,并应用此新方法重新测算了2003年至2011年期间净流入我国的"热钱"规模。研究结果显示,"热钱"流入的趋势特征与这一时期国内的经济形势变化及资本市场发展基本吻合,具有明显的顺周期性特征,这为加强逆周期的跨境资本流动管理提供了科学依据。

In recent years,the inflow of＂hot money＂has been a hot issue widely concerned and discussed thoroughly in domestic academic field. Since there are still disputes over how to define the concept of ＂hot money ＂ among domestic researchers,so far the unified caliber and standard method of calculating the volume of ＂hot money＂has not yet been formed. The common measures for ＂hot money＂include ＂direct measurement＂and ＂indirect measurement＂,however,both methods could not calculate the volume of ＂hot money＂under trade account effectively,which is the main channel of ＂hot money＂currently inflowing and outflowing domestic markets. Therefore,this paper put forward a new way to calculate the volume of ＂hot money＂under trade account from the viewpoint of economic theory,and apply the new method to re-calculate the volume of net inflows of ＂hot money＂during 2003 to 2011. The empirical results show that the trend feature of ＂hot money ＂ inflow is basically consistent with the changes of domestic economic situation and the development of capital markets in the same period,which indicates remarkable procyclicality. It provides a scientific basis for enhangcing contra-cyclical management of cross-border capital flows.