西南地区泥石流区易灾人口脆弱性评估

Evaluation on Population Vulnerability from Debris Flow Disasters in Southwest China

基于西南地区(西藏地区除外)社会经济统计数据、自然环境数据和历年泥石流灾害事件记录,采用因子分析的方法,对西南地区泥石流人员脆弱性进行了评价。结果显示,西南地区易灾人口分布呈现四种类型:中部和西北部的极高脆弱区,北部和西南部的高度脆弱区,片状围绕极高脆弱区分布的中度脆弱区及点状分布的低度脆弱区。其中,极高脆弱区人员综合易损率达3.89人/万人,高度脆弱区高于3人/万人,中度脆弱区和低度脆弱区平均人员易损率分别为2.69人/万人和1.49人/万人。相关检验分析表明,泥石流区易灾人口脆弱性空间分异规律不仅与历年实际受灾人口相吻合,而且与区域社会经济发展水平密切相关。因此,提高社会经济水平、降低易灾人口脆弱性是未来西南地区减灾防灾重要的内容。

Vulnerability is an important component in disaster risk investigation. We precede a vulnerability evaluation on population in Southwest China from debris-flow disasters by Factor Analysis. The data are from socioeconomic statistics,measures on natural environment as well as disaster records on debris flows. The result shows that there are four types of population vulnerability zones in Southwest China,the extremely-high zones in the central and northwestern part,the high zones in the northern and southwestern part,the moderate zones surrounding the extremely high,and the scattering low zones. The average fragile rate in the extremely-high vulnerability zones reaches 3. 89 persons per 104,that in the high zones is over 3 persons per 104. The fragile rates in the moderate and low are 2. 69 and 1. 49 persons per 104 respectively. The results were examined and analyzed,which shows the spatial differentiation of population vulnerability from debris flows have a close relation not only with the disaster-affected populations,but also with the regional socioeconomic development levels. Hence it is a key measure for disaster prevention and mitigation to reduce the vulnerable populations and raise the socioeconomic level in this area.