基于模糊C均值的广东省登陆热带气旋路径分类研究

Classification of Tropical Cyclone Tracks Striking Guangdong from 1949-2013 based on Fuzzy c-means

利用中国台风网(www.typhoon.gov.cn)的"CMA-STI热带气旋最佳路径数据集"获取1949-2013年间登陆广东省的热带气旋的登陆位置、强度、路径长度等主要的特征参数,利用模糊C聚类(FCM)法建立了登陆广东省热带气旋路径分类方法,并对分类得到的6个路径类型热带气旋在空间分布特征、强度和生命史以及活动时间等方面进行了对比分析。结果表明各类热带气旋特征量有明显的差异。从65年的变化趋势看,广东省热带气旋存在着西多东少的频次规律,而强度分布却是东强西弱。

Based on the best-track dataset from the www. typhoon. gov. cn between 1949- 2013,a method is established for objective classification of tropical cyclone（ TC） tracks striking Guangdong province by Fuzzy cmeans（ FCM） that takes into account such characteristic parameters as the position,intensity,path length,etc.Six clusters from classification are analyzed for comparison in terms of the TC＇s genesis and landfall position,intensity and lifespan,the temporal characteristics was analyzed. These parameters are quite different among the clusters. From the trends in the 65 years,the frequency of the western is more than the eastern,while the intensity is opposite.