中国能源回弹效应测度及集聚性研究——基于技术进步分解的视角

Measure and Agglomeration of Energy Consumption Rebound Effects in China: Based on Decomposition of Technological Progress

基于DEA-Malmquist生产率指数法和LMDI分解法构建回弹效应测算的改进模型,实证测算全国、4区域及30个省份1995—2012年能源回弹效应,并进行聚类分析。结果表明:广义技术进步计算的中国宏观能源回弹均值为79%,效应值呈下降趋势;"硬"技术进步对能源回弹起主导作用,"软"技术进步对回弹变动缺乏规律性。聚类分析表明,经济水平较高区域和能源主要输出区域存在显著的能源回弹效应。因此,制定能源政策的重心应向提高技术效率和产业结构调整方向倾斜。

DEA-Malmquist productivity index method and LMD! decomposition method are building the improvement model for rebound effect calculation, predict the trends of changes in the energy consumption rebound effects in China from 1995 to 2012 and conduct cluster analysis. The outcome shows that the rebound effect of technological progress in a broad sense is 79%, and takes on a gradual downward trend. ＂Hard＂ technological progress on the energy rebound plays a dominant role. There＇ s no rule to follow in the rebound effect of ＂soft＂ technological progress. The higher level of economic development areas and the energy-exporting areas are easier to increase the energy bound-back. Hence, the energy policies formulated should focus on the improvement of technological efficiency and industrial structure adjustment.