世界农产品的库存变化与中国因素

The Change of World Agricultural Produces Stock and China Factor

随着生产力水平的提高及全球贸易的改善,世界范围内的农产品库存状况逐步下降,库存消费情况越来越体现出效率优先的原则。从具体产品来看,世界水稻、小麦、玉米、棉花、食糖五种大宗农产品库存消费均显示出了一致的内在规律。相对而言,中国农产品的巨大库存形成的"水坝效应",不仅增加了国内财政补贴的压力,同时也对国内市场带来了巨大隐患。对比国际国内农产品库存消费变化,对于国内现有的农产品市场支持政策来说,适度降低支持水平,容忍粮食及部分大宗农产品的减产,维持农产品价格趋势中轴抬升,以市场化的方式来化解市场化的矛盾,并且以此为契机进一步优化国内的农业生产结构,提高农业生产资源配置效率才是中国农业在短期内的出路。

With the improvement of productivity and global trade, agricultural produces stock in the world has gradually declined, and the stock consumption has become more and more efficiently decided. For example, the consumption of the five commodities of rice, wheat, maize, cotton and sugar have shown an internal consistent law. Relatively, the ＂Dam effect＂ of huge inventory of Chinese agricultural produces has not only increased the pressure on domestic financial subsidies, but also brought a risk to the domestic market. Compared with the domestic and international stock for the consumption of agricultural produces, the existing domestic support policy needs to reduce the support level moderately, tolerate the agricultural reduction, maintain agricultural produces price trend by resorting to market-o- riented way to resolve market contradictions, optimize domestic agricultural produces structure, and im- prove the resource allocation efficiency.