中国大中城市土地供给对住宅价格的影响

Land Supply in Urban Area and Housing Price : Empirical Research from 35 Key Cities of China

中国房地产市场化始于1998年,而中国各级政府从2002年才开始对房地产市场进行调控和干预。调控的一个很重要的方面就是对土地供给的限制。此后,中国的住宅价格开始了迅速且持续的上涨。诸多文献都揭示了住宅价格不仅反映着经济基本面因素,更反映出政府政策的变化。所以,我们认为中国的土地政策是住宅价格的一个极其重要的解释因素。本文用中国35个主要城市的数据建立面板数据模型进行分析。结果发现,土地供给与住宅价格存在显著的负向关系。对比中国政府限制土地前后的结果,我们发现,在土地宏观控制后,这一负向关系更加突出。由此本文认为,2002年后开始的中国住宅价格的上涨,在很大程度上归因于土地供给的限制。中国住宅价格的上涨已经偏离了经济稳定增长的轨道,土地财政造成的土地供给限制和房地产企业为了获得住宅价格上涨的高额利润而进行的土地储备是造成这一结果的两个重要原因。所以,要彻底解决房价问题就不能忽略土地供给问题。住宅价格要回到适合经济增长的正常轨道,寻找新经济增长点弱化土地财政,利用法律法规限制囤地待涨,进而解除对土地供给的限制就是不可避免的。

China started to establish a comprehensive real estate market in 1998. China government started to intervene the real estate market and restrict the land supply in 2002. From then on,there was a rapid decline in the China land supply,which corresponded with the steep and continuous increase in housing price. Many theory and empirical literatures conclude that housing price reflect not only economic fundamentals but also government＇s policies. Therefore,it is reasonable to regard the land policy as a very important factor which affects the China housing price significantly. In this paper,we established a panel data model and analyzed empirically using the data of35 key cities in China. The results show that there is a significant negative relationship between China land supply and housing price. Especially,when we compared the results before and after the land restriction of China government,we found that the negative relationship is more prominent after the land macro- control. Therefore, we believe that the increase in housing prices after 2002 can be attributed largely to the tight land policy. We concluded that：the housing price in China have already deviated upward from the growth path of economic fundamentals. The restriction of land supply caused by ＂Land of financial＂ and land banking behavior of real estate enterprises is the most important reason leading this. Therefore, if we want to solve the housing price problem, we should not ignore the problem of land. The only way to make housing price come back to the normal growth path of economic fundamentals is lifting the restriction of land supply.