美联储流动性规模调整与中国经济的交互影响

Interactive effect of the Fed's liquidity scale adjustment and China's economy

2008年金融危机重创全球经济,美联储主动实行美元量化宽松政策以应对金融危机的冲击。2014年1月美联储开始削减资产购买规模,标志着持续5年之久的量化宽松政策正式步入退出阶段。2014年10月美联储结束了为期6年的量化宽松政策(QE)。虽然美元名义上退出了量化宽松政策,但是为了维持其国际化地位而事实上采取调整货币流动性规模的政策是不可避免的。同时,美元作为一种国际信用货币,其流动性规模的调整不仅影响本国经济,更在中国外汇储备规模变动、人民币汇率波动、国际贸易规模变动和热钱流向与规模等方面影响中国经济。这要求中国从完善人民币汇率形成机制、加强对热钱的管理、管理通货膨胀和适度加快人民币国际化步伐等方面做出应对。

The 2008 financial crisis hit the global economy, Federal Reserve took initiative to implement quan- titative easing （QE） in response. In January 2014, the Federal Reserve started to reduce the scale of asset purcha- ses, marking the five-year-long QE policy officially in the exit stage. In October 2014 the Fed ended the six-year QE policy. Although nominally dollars has exited out of the QE policy, but in order to maintain its international sta- tus that it in fact adjusted the size of monetary liquidity policy is inevitable. Meanwhile, the dollar which is interna- tional credit currency whose adjustment to the scale of QE monetary policy not only affects the U.S. economy, but also influences China＇ s economy through the scale of China＇ s foreign exchange reserves, U.S. dollar against the RMB exchange rate, the scale of international trade and the hot money. It therefore demands that China should im- prove the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, strengthen the management of hot money and inflation, and ac- celerate the pace of RMB internationalization.