摘要
当前我国正处于老年人口规模和速度都迅速发展的时期,老龄化会对经济与社会发展造成不利影响。根据经济增长理论,从人力、资本、技术三个方面系统分析了老龄化对经济发展的影响,并采用动态面板回归模型进行实证分析。研究结果表明:老龄化现象对人力资本、技术进步、国内生产总值均有不利影响,但对资本形成总额则有积极作用。从不同角度分析成因后,指出只有不断创新,提高生产效率、提高人口素质才能应对老龄化的不利影响。
China is now in a period of the elderly population both on size and speed. Based on the theory of economic growth,this paper systematically analyzes the impacts of aging on economic and social development from three aspects of human,capital,technology. And empirically analyzes the impact of aging on China＇s economic development by using dynamic panel data regression model. The results showed that： aging phenomena have an adverse impact on human capital,working- age population growth,technological progress,and GDP. But it is positively correlated with gross capital formation,and a reasonable explanation has to be given. The fundamental ways to deal with the problem of aging are constant innovation,vigorously develop the productive forces and improve production efficiency.
出处
《经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第10期40-44,共5页
On Economic Problems
基金
国家社科基金一般项目"中国国家资产负债表编制理论与方法研究"(14BTJ007)
山西省教育厅基地项目"山西省人口结构变动对经济增长的影响研究"
关键词
人口老龄化
经济发展
动态面板
aging population
economic development
dynamic panel
