国际航空运输服务与货物贸易的相关性研究——基于中、美、德、日四国比较

Study on the Correlation of International Air Transport Services Trade and Goods Trade

基于2000～2012年中、美、德、日的航空运输服务贸易和货物贸易数据,对四国的国际航空运输服务竞争力进行了比较。然后,从总量上分析了国际航空运输服务贸易与货物贸易之间的互动影响关系,结果显示：国际航空运输服务贸易与货物贸易相互促进,国际航空运输服务贸易容易受到货物贸易的影响,而货物贸易额受国际航空运输服务贸易影响较小,且有一定的滞后性。另外,从进、出口的角度分析了货物贸易对国际航空运输服务贸易内部结构的影响,分析表明货物贸易的进、出口对不同国家的国际航空运输服务贸易进、出口的影响效应不同。最后探索了国际航空运输服务贸易与货物贸易协同发展的对策。

Based on air transport services trade and goods trade data of China, US, Germany, Japan from 2000 to 2012, this paper compares the international air transport services trade competitiveness of the four coun- tries. Then, we analyze the interaction impact between international air transport services trade and goods trade from the total, the result shows that both are mutually promoted, international air transport services trade is easily affected by trade in goods, and goods trade is less affected by international air transportation service trade, and has a certain lag. In addition, this paper analyzes how to impact the internal structure of interna- tional air transport services trade from import and export of goods trade. Analysis shows that international air transport services trade import and export effects are different from different countries＇ trade in goods import and export. Finally, we explore the strategies of collaborative development of international air transport serv- ices trade and goods trade.