滇东北农业低温冷害风险度空间分异研究

Spatial Differentiation of Risk Degree of Agriculture Chilling Damage in Northeastern Yunnan

在总结国内外关于灾害风险研究的基础上,以滇东北地区为案例,通过分析农业低温冷害自然致灾风险值和承灾体易损度指数,构建滇东北地区农业低温冷害综合风险度评价模型。对农业低温冷害综合风险度进行分级,并利用GIS技术绘制滇东北地区农业低温冷害综合风险区划图;最后,借用交通网络结构的测量参数对自然致灾风险区、易损度等级区及综合风险区进行空间结构分析,且对低温冷害系统内部一些要素进行关联性分析。结果表明,滇东北地区缺失农业低温冷害综合风险的较高风险区,存在极高风险区、高风险区、中风险区、低风险区4个风险等级区;综合风险度呈现自中部分别向北部、南部逐渐减弱的空间态势;从各级风险区空间结构分析,分散指数越小,表明区域内部不同等级区之间的破碎性越小、连通度越高,同一等级区的连片分布特征越明显。

For example in northeastern Yunnan, on the basis of research on the risk of disaster at home and aboard, by analyzing the natural disaster risk index of chilling damage and the vulnerability index, the evaluation model of comprehensive risk index of agricuhural chilling dam- age in the northeast area of Ytmnan was constructed. Comprehensive risk degree of chilling damage to agriculture is graded and use of GIS tech- nology to draw chilling damage in northeast Yunnan agricultural comprehensive risk zoning map. Finally, use the measurement parameters of the traffic network structure to analyze the spatial structure of the natural disaster risk areas, the vulnerability grade areas and comprehensive risk are- as. And the relationship of the internal elements of the chilling damage system was analyzed. The result indicates that ： There are four levels of risk areas： the highest risk areas, the high-risk areas, the middle risk areas and the low-risk areas, but the higher risk areas are missing. The comprehensive risk index is weakened from centre to the north, the south respectively. Analysis of the spatial structure of risk areas at all levels, the smaller the dispersion index indicates that the fragmentation between different levels within the regional district is smaller, the higher the con- nectivity and even the more obvious distribution characteristic in the same grades.