2030年中国综合国力模型构建与预测

CONSTRUCTION AND APPLICATION ABOUT COMPREHENSIVE NATIONAL STRENGTH CALCULATION MODEL:STUDY ON CHINA'S C.N.S IN 2030

本文通过对综合国力的理论要点和模型的论述和分析,在充分吸收前人研究成果的基础上,根据中国的现实和未来走势,完成了本研究模型的逻辑形成过程,并把它应用于2030年中国综合国力预测的实践中去考究其合理性、科学性和可行性。由于中国大国崛起的独特属性,使这一对综合国力研究过程不可能变成"纯技术化"层次,主观规范性的因素占较大空间。当然,定量分析也是必要的。在实际计算和分析时,本文主要采用和美国进行比较的标准化方法,发现和这个最强国家的差距,粗略得出中国在2030年的大致国力,暗示顺利达成这个目标,需要建立符合现代文明特征的社会制度和基本价值观。

Based on the key theory and model of comprehensive national strength, this paper has completed the logical formation of the research model and applied it in the practice of China＇s comprehensive national power in 2030. Because of the unique nature of the rise of China＇s big country, the study of comprehensive national strength can not be changed into ＂pure technical＂ level, and the subjective norm of the factors occupy a large space. Of course, quantitative analysis is also necessary. When doing the actual calculation and analysis, we use the standardized way to compare the measured results of our country with that of the United States, and find the gap between our country and the strongest countries in the world.In the end, we calculate roughly what China comprehensive national strength is in 2030.the thesis suggest if successfully achieving this goal, China need establish a social system with the characteristics of modem civilization and basic values.