日本货币政策对中韩两国的溢出效应研究

The Study of the Spillover Effect of Japanese Monetary Policy on China and Korea

以中、日、韩三国2001年3月-2015年3月的月度数据为样本,考察日本货币政策对中韩两国的溢出效应。结论表明:日本扩张的货币政策对中国的利率和对日贸易的影响较为显著,对韩国的利率水平会产生持续的影响,对其他变量的影响则只在短期内较为显著。为应对日本持续性的宽松货币政策,中国应进一步调整出口产品结构,同时也要采取适度宽松的政策进行预防。对韩国来说,则要更多关注短期性的冲击。

This paper takes the monthly data ot Cnlna, japan ailu ooutll lxut 2015 as a sample, to study the spillover effects of Japanese monetary policy on China and South korea. The con- clusion shows that： （1） Japan＇s expanding monetary policy has a significant impact on China＇s interest rate and the trade with Japanese. （2） Japan＇s expanding monetary policy will have a sustained impact on the interest rate of South Korea, but the impact on other variables can only last in a short time. In order to deal with Japan＇s con- tinued loose policy, China should further adjust the structure of export products, then take a moderate easing policy to prevent. For South Korea, it should pay more attention to the impact of short-term.