基于SWAT模型的盘龙江流域径流模拟

Runoff simulation of Panlong River Basin based on SWAT model

为了给日后的滇池治理和昆明市水资源保护利用提供依据,以昆明市区的盘龙江流域为研究区域,采用SWAT模型对该流域的径流进行模拟研究,通过加载流域的DEM、土地利用、土壤类型等数据到SWAT模型,选定1999—2004年为模型参数率定期,2005—2007年为模型验证期,对松华坝以上流域和以下流域分别进行模拟,并对模拟结果进行比较和评价。结果表明:松华坝以上区间流域的模拟相关系数R2在0.83以上,Ens在0.80以上;松华坝以下区域的模拟相关系数R2在0.70以上,Ens在0.58以上。即该模型对盘龙江流域具有良好的适应性,可以为盘龙江流域在不同土地利用的条件下对流域的水量、水质、泥沙进行模拟预测。

In order to provide basis for the management of Dianchi Lake and for the conservation and utilization of water resource of Kunming in the coming days,taking Panlong River basin in the downtown of Kunming,Yunnan Province as the study area,adopting the SWAT model to simulate the runoff of this basin and uploading the data including DEM of the basin,earth utilization and the type of the earth to it,choosing the years from 1999 to 2004 as the model＇s parameter calibration period and the years from 2005 to 2007 as the model＇s validation period,the upstream and the downstream are simulated respectively and the results of the simulation are compared and evaluated. The results show that the R2 and Ensof upstream drainage basin are above 0. 83 and 0. 80 respectively,and the R2 and Ensof lower drainage basin are above 0. 70 and 0. 58 respectively,which means the model is of good adaptability to Panlong River basin and is able to simulate and predict the water volume,water quality,silt of the drainage basin under different land utilization circumstances.