储蓄率居高的城乡人口结构影响的差异分析——基于边际消费倾向的时变性分析

Variance Analysis on the Impact of High Savings Rate on the Urban and Rural Population Structure——Based on Time-varying Analysis of the Marginal Propensity to Consume

我国经济不平衡的一个突出特点是高储蓄率。提升消费动力有助于我国经济在稳定和可持续的基础上转入新常态。本文以生命周期理论为研究基础,动态求解居民边际消费倾向,分城乡研究了居民收入的波动和人口年龄结构转变对其的影响特点。研究结论表明:城镇居民的消费行为具有较强的惯性,而农村居民消费水平则依据收入波动而呈现较高弹性。人口结构的变化对农村和城镇居民消费的影响也是不一样的,农村居民满足理论规律。在生育率不断下降情况下,农民倾向于降低当期消费而提高储蓄以应付养老。较完善的社保体制导致城镇居民养老储蓄动机较小;由于子女质量与数量的替代效应存在,城镇居民表现出较强的教育储蓄动机和馈赠储蓄动机。

A prominent feature of China’s economic imbalance is the high savings rate. Enhancing theconsumption power helps China’s economyshift to a new normal state on a stable and sustainable basis. Based on the theory of life cycle,the marginal propensity to consume is dynamically solved in this article. And this paper analyzes how it is affect-ed by the income fluctuations and changes in population age structure of the urban and rural areas respectively. The re-search result indicates that the consumption action of the urban residents has a stronger propensity,while the consump-tion level of rural residents has a higher elasticity as the income fluctuates. The impact of the changes in thepopulation age structure is different on the consumption of the rural and urban residents. Rural residents tend to reduce the current consumption to increase savings to cope with old age as the fertility ratio falls continuously. As the social security sys-tem for the urban residents is rather perfect,their motivation to save is small. Meanwhile, as there is a substitution ef-fect of the quantity by the quality of the children, the motivation of the urban residents shows stronger propensity for the education savings and gift savings.