中国电力需求的动态局部调整模型分析——基于电力需求特殊性的视角

China's Electricity Demand Analysis Based on Dynamic Partial Adjustment Model——A Perspective from Special Characteristics of Electricity Demand

电力需求分析是支撑电力发展与改革事业的基本理论依据,然而,电力需求的特殊性增加了这一领域研究的难度。本文利用动态局部调整模型和动态面板估计方法,以2003—2013年的中国省际面板数据为基础,深入分析了基于全国和区域视角的中国电力需求特征。本文发现,忽略电力需求的引致性、电力商品属性的多维性和电力技术的通用目的技术特性将使模型设定和研究结论产生偏误。通过建立动态局部调整模型、筛选关键控制变量和解决内生性问题,本文强调了经济发展中的结构性因素对电力需求的重要影响,工业化、城镇化、非公经济占比提高、城乡差距缩小都是促进长期电力需求增长的重要因素,而电力市场化改革和经济对外开放则是促进可持续和绿色化发展的推动力。基于全国和区域视角的电力需求特征并不相同,各种经济结构因素的影响均因东、中、西部的划分而存在明显差异,制定电力发展与改革政策必须考虑地区差异性。特别地,根据区域价格弹性差异,中部地区相对更宜挑选出新一轮电力体制改革的试点省份。

Demand analysis is the basic theoretical foundation for China＇s electricity development and reform, but the special characteristics of electricity demand add the difficulty and complexity of demand analysis. Using the dynamic partial adjustment model, dynamic panel data technique, and the provincial data from 2003 to 2013, this paper investigates how the technical characteristics and economic structures effect national and regional electricity demand. It shows that ignoring the electricity specialties will result in the biases of identification and conclusions. Industrialization, urbanization, the growth of non-public economy, and the reduction of the urban-rural gap will drive electricity demand in the long term, while the electricity marketization and further opening-up will guide China＇s economy towards sustainable and green development. The conclusions from national perspective and regional perspective differ, so the decisions about China＇s electricity development and reform must take the regional heterogeneities. And the middle region provinces are relatively more suitable for becoming experimental markets for the new round of electricity institution reform.