宁波市鄞州区2010~2014年手足口病不同病原季节性流行特征

Study on the seasonal trend features of hand, foot and mouth disease with different pathogen strains from 2010 to 2014 in Yinzhou district of Ningbo

目的了解宁波市鄞州区不同手足口病优势型病原季节性流行特征。方法采用系统聚类分析和圆形分布法，对中国疾病监测信息报告系统和鄞州区CDC实验室检测系统中2010--2014年手足口病监测资料，进行不同病原优势型季节性特征分析。结果2010-2014年宁波市鄞州区手足口病发病呈上升趋势（r自#=6384．94，P〈0．01），且总体病原体阳性检出率不同（x2=175．495，P〈0．01）。聚类分析显示：2010--2011年病原以EV71为主，占60．30％，发病呈单高峰特征；2012和2014年以其他肠道病毒为主．占46．62％．发病呈现主次双高峰特征；2013年病原以其他肠道病毒为主，占82．89％，发病呈现双高峰特征，各时段各病原分布特征差异有统计学意义（x2=264．035，P〈0．01）。圆形分布显示，2010-2011年、2012和2014年、2013年手足口病发病高峰时间分别为6月22171、6月14日、7月24日（r=0．497、0．358、0．276），差异有统计学意义（Z=I521．00、1919．29、399．38，P均〈0．05）。结论宁波市鄞州区手足口病不同优势型病原存在不同的季节性发病特征：应根据不同病原的发病特征采取有针对性的措施。

Objective To analyze the seasonal trend features of different pathogenic dominant strains of hand, foot and mouth disease （HFMD） in Yinzhou district, Ningbo. Methods Systematic cluster analysis and circular distribution were used to analyze the seasonal trend features of different pathogenic dominant strains of HFMD. The data were collected from National Notifiable Disease Reporting System and laboratory testing system of Yinzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention from 2010 to 2014. Results From 2010 to 2014, the incidence of HFMD was increasing in Yinzhou district （x2trend=6 384.94,P〈0.01 ）, and the positive rates of overall pathogens were different （x2=175.495,P〈0.01）. EV71 was the main pathogen of 2010 and the 2011 as one type, accounting for 60.30% with a pathogenetic characteristic of single peak. Other entericvirus was the main pathogens of 2012 and 2014 as one type, Which was accounting for 46.62% with a pathogenetic characteristic of primary and secondary double peak. Other entericvirus was the main pathogen of 2013 as one type, Which was accounting for 82.90% with a pathogenetic characteristic of double peak. The differences between years were statistically significant （x2=264.035 ,P〈0.01 ）. According to the circular distribution, the peak time of different types were June 22rd from 2010 to 2011, June 14th in 2012 and 2014, and July 24th in 2013, while r value of different types was 0.497, 0.358 and 0.276. The differences were statistically significant （Z=1521.00,1 919.29,399.38,P〈0.05）. Conclusions There are different seasonal trend features of different pathogenic dominant strains of HFMD in Yinzhou district,the preventive measures before the epidemic period should be based on different pathogenic dominant strains.