2014年首届男篮世界杯不同节奏下技术统计分析

Technique statistics analysis of 2014 Men's Basketball World Cup

以篮球比赛控球权为出发点聚类首届男篮世界杯76场比赛的节奏,在快、一般和慢3种节奏下分析胜负球队间的基础技术统计差异和深层技术统计差异,探索不同比赛节奏下影响胜负的主要因素。研究表明:在3种节奏均呈现差异的2分球、3分球命中率方面,胜队在快节奏中优势较一般节奏和慢节奏更为明显;在进攻篮板球次数方面胜负队在任何节奏下都没有差异,但在深层篮板率上差别较大,胜队占据绝对优势;实力较强的队伍在快节奏下赢得比赛的机会更大,在慢节奏下赢得比赛机会最小;实力较弱的球队在慢节奏下能更好发挥多方面能力值,可以增加获胜概率。

This paper clustered the 76 games of 2014 Men ＇s Basketball World Cup into fast,mediate and slow tempo groups based on the possession of the ball and analyzed the basic and underlying statistic difference between the winning teams and losing ones to explore the main factors that influence the outcome under different tempos. Study shows that under the 3 tempos the stronger teams had obvious advantages in 2- point shot and under the fast and mediate tempo,3- point and 2- point shooting had absolute advantage. In terms of number of offensive rebound the outcome were no differences in any tempo,but offensive rebound rate in terms of the outcome are significantly different under 3 tempos,which can truly reflect that stronger team has absolute advantage in offensive rebounding ability. The stronger team had more chance to win the game under the fast tempo and had the least chance to win under the mediate tempo. Weaker teams should play under the mediate or slow tempo against the stronger ones in order to increase the winning probability.