技术轨道理论视角的技术创新混沌模型

Chaos Model of Technological Innovation Based on Technological Trajectories Theory

文章对技术轨道理论研究和技术创新演化研究进行了梳理,在前人研究的基础上,将技术轨道理论与混沌经济学的逻辑斯蒂(Logistic)方程结合起来,引入初始状态、随机涨落和非线性反馈,构建了技术轨道理论视角的技术创新混沌模型,用数学语言描述技术创新的发展变化。文章先分析了只存在一条技术轨道并忽略涨落因素的简化模型,然后在此基础上分析逐步加入轨道因素和涨落因素的更接近现实情况的复杂模型。模型先是探讨了不考虑政府外力作用,在自组织情况下技术创新发展的轨迹,然后分析了加入政府外力作用后如何改变技术创新的发展轨迹,并分别讨论了政府在影响非线性反馈、轨道因素以及随机涨落情况下,对技术创新轨迹的改变。

Based on the theory of technological trajectory and the logical equation, a chaos model of technological innovation with introducing the initial conditions, the random fluctuation, and the nonlinear feedback is built. First, without considered the fluctuation factor and assuming only one technological trajectory, a simplified model is analyzed. Then gradually taken the factors of trajectories and the factors of the fluctuation into consideration, a series of complex models are added. More specifically, the proposed model, which is from first discussion, is set up with the track of the development of technological innovation in the case of self-organization, and then the discussion of the changes of technological innovation in the presence of the role of government is shown.