美国征收碳关税的应对政策——碳税与碳关税经济效应比较研究

Proposal for US Carbon Tariff——A Study on Economic Effects of Carbon Tax and Carbon Tariff

美国碳关税的征收无疑是对我国出口产品经济利益的损害,如果我国先行在国内对高耗能产品征收碳税,美国将不能再在其进口环节对我国高耗能出口产品征收碳关税。对此,文章通过建立模型对碳税和碳关税两种政策的价格效应、出口效应、消费效应、生产效应和社会福利效应进行对比分析,结果表明碳税会提高产品的世界市场价格,而碳关税则相反;征收碳关税比碳税使出口减少得更多,而征收碳税比碳关税使我国生产数量下降得更多,碳关税的保护主义性质明显而碳税的减排效果明显;当不考虑外部性时,碳税可能给我国社会福利带来净收益而碳关税的社会福利效应则为负,当考虑碳排放所带来的外部性时,碳税和碳关税的社会福利效应不确定。面对美国2020年可能实施的碳关税政策,考虑到发展低碳经济的必然性,我国可在未来制定一个合理的低碳税,并渐进性地提高碳税征收额。

U.S. carbon tariff collection is the damage to the economic interests of the export products in China, if China＇s first a carbon tax of energy-intensive products in China, the United States can no longer in its import links a carbon tariff on energy-intensive export products in China. To this, the article the paper analyzes the price effect, export effect, consumption effect, production effect and social welfare effect of carbon tax and carbon tariffs by establishing the model and the results indicate that the carbon tax will raise product prices in the world market, but the carbon tariff is the opposite; Carbon tariffs reduce more export than carbon taxes, and carbon taxes reduce more output than carbon tariffs make the number of China＇s production dropped more protectionist carbon tariff, so carbon tariffs has protectionist characters and carbon tax＇s emission reduction effect is obvious; when ignoring the externality, the carbon tax can bring net gain of social welfare and carbon tariffs social welfare effect is negative, but when considering externality, social welfare effects of carbon tax and carbon tariff are uncertain. Faced by the United States＇ carbon tariff policy in 2020, and taking into account the inevitability of the development of low carbon economy, China can formulate a reasonable low carbon tax in the future and gradually increase the amount of carbon tax.