碳排放与低碳农业经济发展

Study on Carbon Emissions and Low-carbon Agricultural Economy Development

人们越来越关注农业生产所导致的碳排放以及引发的环境问题。基于农业生产过程中6个主要方面的碳排放源,测算了我国2000—2012年各省区的农业碳排放量。结果发现,我国的农业生产碳排放总量基本保持着上升的状态,但是不同阶段其增长速率是不同的;我国大部分省份的农业碳排放总量每年都在上升,但北京和上海科技比较发达的地区农业碳排放量逐年下降;农业碳排放总量较高地区主要集中在农业大省,农业碳排放强度较高地区主要集中在发达城市和中部农业大省。同时,实证分析了主要的碳排放源对农业产值的影响。结果发现,影响最深的是化肥施用量,农业机械动力、农作物面积、农用柴油对农业经济增长都有一定的影响。说明低碳农业经济的发展需要降低化肥的使用量,采用新能源技术,开发出新的物料元素等。

More and more carbon emissions and environmental problems caused by agricultural production got the attention of people. Based on the agricultural production in six major aspects of the carbon emission source, the inter-provincial agricultural carbon emissions were measured from 2000 to 2012 in our country. The results showed that our country agriculture had been showed a trend of rising carbon emissions, but its growth rate was not the same in different time stage. Most provinces of China agricultural carbon emissions increased year by year, but agricultural carbon emission decreased year by year in Beijing and Shanghai. Agricultural carbon emissions higher areas were mainly concentrated in the big agricultural province, agricultural carbon emissions intensity higher areas were mainly concentrated in the developed cities and the central agricultural province. Through empirical analysis the impact of main carbon source on agricultural output, and found that fertilizer use had been deepest influence on agricultural production, agricultural machinery, agricultural diesel, and crop area has a significant effect on growth of agricultural economy. This indicated that the low carbon agricultural economy development needed to reduce the usage of chemical fertilizer, used new energy technology, developed new material elements, etc.