环境卫生适应气候变化能力提升方法研究

A Measure Selection Method for Climate Change Adaptation Enhancement in Environmental Hygiene

气候变化是当前全球面临的重大问题,为在城市不同区域找到合适的适应能力提升措施,以增强环境卫生领域适应气候变化的能力,提出一套在不同类型区域中基于蒙特卡洛模拟的措施优化方法。该方法在创建指标体系的基础上,通过聚类分析将城市划分为不同区域,并以人工神经网络建立卫生领域脆弱性与各影响因素之间的响应关系,利用蒙特卡洛模拟方法寻找适用于不同区域的最优方案。文章以我国某个人口密集的大型城市为例,利用上述方法识别出33个适用于不同类型区域的最优措施。通过比较各个指标当前与最优状态之间的差距,确定短板和相应的优化措施,为提高卫生领域适应气候变化的能力提供理论支持。

Currently,climate change is a significant problem all over the world. Under this context,in order to find some ap- propriate measures to enhance the adaptability of environmental hygiene sector in different areas of a city, an optimization method that based on Monte Carlo simulation method was put forward. The specific processes of this measure were as tollows ：firstly ,to for- mulate indicator system;secondly, to divide a city into several different areas by cluster analysis;thirdly, to analyze response rela- tionship among the vulnerability of environmental hygiene sector with the formulated indicators by artificial neural network ; lastly, to discern the optimal solution of different areas through Monte Carlo simulation method. The above method was applied in one densely populated major city in China, and 33 best measures that applicable to different areas were identified, accordingly. The theoretical support for improving the adaptability to climate change of public health sector was provided, by comparing the gap between current state and the best, and by discerning the gap between short board and optimization measures.