基于帕累托最优的人口、经济与土地城镇化协调发展评价研究——以皖江城市带为例

Assessment of Coordinate Development among Population, Economy and Land Urbanization Based on Pareto Optimality:A Case Study of Cities along the Yangtze River in Anhui Province

本文从城镇化协调发展要求城镇系统达到帕累托最优的角度出发,运用数据包络分析法构建人口、经济与土地城镇化协调性评价模型,并以皖江城市带为例进行实证分析。研究结果表明:(1)将城镇化各维度同比例变化视为城镇化协调发展是不合理的;(2)皖江城市带城镇建设用地利用粗放,非农经济就业吸纳能力不足,非农劳动力未得到有效发挥,致使经济城镇化滞后于土地城镇化,人口城镇化超前于土地城镇化,城镇化协调性总体呈东强西弱、南高北低的空间格局;(3)城镇化建设应以经济城镇化为动力,以土地节约集约利用为支撑,提升城镇空间的经济承载力和人口承载力,形成建设用地增长与经济增长相匹配、非农劳动力增长与非农经济就业吸纳能力提升与相匹配的城镇化协调发展格局。

In view of that coordinate development of urbanization must reach Pareto Optimality, this paper has created a model for the assessment of population, economy and land urbanization based on the concepts of all the above factors with Data Envelopment Analysis （DEA）.Taking Cities along the Yangtze River in Anhui Province as an example, this paper has concluded that it was unreasonable to take the same proportional changes of different factors of urbanization as the signature of coordinate development. With large rural surplus labor and insufficient non-farm employment, economy urbanization in Cities along the Yangtze River in Anhui Province has lagged behind land urbanization, and land urbanization has lagged behind population urbanization. Further, the level of coordinate urbanization development of Cities along the Yangtze River in Anhui Province has decreased from east to west and from south to north according to its spatial pattern. It is vital to ensure that the increase of nonfarm labor matches nonfarm employment to promote coordinate development among population, economy and urbanization. Besides, urbanization should be motivated by economy urbanization. To promote economical and intensive land use and to guarantee the increase of non-farm labor matching that of the absorption capacity of non-farm is the key to promote coordinate development among population, economy and land urbanization.