受教育水平对退休抉择的影响研究

The Impact of Educational Attainment on Retirement Decision in China

文章结合中老年人延迟退出劳动力市场的预期和实际行为,考察了现阶段中国中老年人的受教育程度对退休抉择的影响。结果发现,2011年全国45岁及以上尚未达到法定退休年龄的非农劳动者中,超过半数预期在法定退休年龄暂不退出劳动力市场;受教育程度较高的劳动者预期延长劳动参与时间的可能性平均较低。但是,劳动参与预期随年龄增长呈现出一定的变化,接近法定退休年龄的劳动者,更有可能延长劳动参与的预期。从劳动者的实际退休行为看,受教育程度最高和最低者的实际退休年龄均相对更晚,而且女性尤为突出。在其他条件不变的情况下,较高的受教育水平对实际劳动参与具有正向作用。文章认为,劳动者选择何时退出劳动力市场,往往是根据自身的人力资本特征、资源禀赋及市场环境抉择的;法定退休年龄对劳动参与的影响主要体现在"体制内"的就业领域。随着年轻队列教育水平的提高,劳动者实际退休年龄的推迟,将在一定程度上缓解未来劳动供给规模下降的压力。

This study examines the impact of educational attainment on individuals' expected labour force participation and actual retirement behavior among the middle-aged and senior work force.The results show that more than half of the nonagricultural work force expect to postpone their retirement beyond legal retirement ages.Compared with those who are poorly educated,the highly educated individuals are less likely to expect a later retirement on average.Nevertheless,the expectation seems to change over life course,and individuals tend to extend their expectation on labor force participation as they get closer to the legal retirement age.As far as the actual retirement behavior is concerned,both the highly educated and barely educated individuals,especially women,are more likely to postpone their actual retirement.Holding other things constant,higher educational attainment has a positive impact on individuals' actual retirement postponement.The study concludes that individuals usually make their retirement decisions by taking account of their human capital and available resources,conditioning on the environment of macro economy and labour market.The regulation of legal retirement age has largely lost its impact on labour force participation in younger generations,especially for those working in market sector.The positive correlation of education and actual age at retirement will help to relieve the pressure of declining labour force supply in the future.