生育意愿中的独生属性与夫妻差异——基于上海市夫妻匹配数据的分析

Couple's Fertility Intention Difference across Only Child Families:Evidence from Matched-couple Survey in Shanghai

文章利用上海市夫妻匹配调查数据,分析"单独两孩"政策对生育意愿的影响,并对生育意愿与生育行为的不一致的现象进行解释。结果发现,生育政策对生育意愿的影响有限,"单独夫妻"、"双独夫妻"和"双非夫妻"之间的生育意愿没有明显的差异。配偶的经济社会特征,尤其是丈夫的经济收入影响妻子的生育意愿。妻子收入低、丈夫收入高,即生育机会成本低且有能力养育更多孩子的家庭,二孩生育意愿相对较高。由于生育决策无法单方面决定,尽管男女平均的生育意愿非常接近,但因30%的夫妻生育意愿存在差异,使夫妻一致的生育意愿较低,从而抑制实际的生育行为。因此,文章建议在生育意愿研究中加强夫妻匹配视角的分析,以提高其对生育行为的预测作用与强化政策应用效果。

Using unique matched couple survey,this paper examines the effect of 'single permitted two-child' policy on fertility intention and provides a new explanation for the discrepancies between desired and actual fertility.The results reveal that the influence of population policy on fertility intention is very limited.There are no statistically and quantitatively significant differences in fertility intention across couples whose one partner is only child,both are only child and both are not only child.Socioeconomic characteristics of spouses,especially husband's income,have significantly effects on wife's fertility desires.Couples whose wife in low wage and husband in high wage have higher probability of wanting two children because of the low opportunity cost and the ability to raise more children.Fertility decision-making cannot be a unilateral decision.Although there is no significant gender difference in fertility intention,about 30%of the couples with discordant preferences make the lower fertility intention and ignore the fertility behaviours.Giving that fertility decisions naturally involve both partners and in the event of spousal disagreement,actual fertility may markedly below the expectation based on a female perspective.The predictive power of fertility intention can be strongly improved if spousal views are considered in fertility research.