平顶山市学龄人口数量与结构的演进预测分析

Prediction on Quantity and Sturcture of School-age Population in Pingdingshan City

学龄人口数量与结构的波动对基础教育区域均衡发展研究具有直接而深远的影响。基于全国第六次人口普查(平顶山市)资料,运用时间序列平滑预测法和改进的灰色预测模型法对未来学龄人口进行预测,并从未来学龄人口数量演进的角度分析其对基础教育区域均衡发展的影响.

The fluctuations of school-age population quantity and structure imposes deep fluence on regional balanced development of basic education.Based on the sixth national census（Pingdingshan）data,using the method of time series smoothing method and an improved grey prediction model,the future schoolage population are predicted,and the impact on the regional balanced development of basic education is analyzed from the point of the future evolution of the school age population.