曲阜地区五百年来旱涝灾害时序特征研究

The Analysis of Drought and Flood Timing Feature in Recent Five Hundred Years of Qufu

通过系统查阅明清及民国时期曲阜的地方志和有关史料,复原了1470-1990年曲阜地区旱涝等级序列并进行了时序特征分析.结果表明:(1)曲阜地区1470-1990年旱灾平均每10年发生3次,严重旱灾每13.6年一遇;涝灾每5年一遇,严重涝灾每15年一遇.(2)在有明确发生时间的旱涝灾害记载中,78.6%旱灾发生在春夏,极少冬旱记载;94%涝灾出现在夏秋,极少冬季水涝记载,无明确春季水灾或涝灾记载.(3)近521年旱涝灾害发生频数呈现出波动性变化,约在1662年、1764年、1874年附近发生转折;通过小波分析发现,干湿波动存在4年、16年、60年3种时间尺度周期.

Through consulting the chorography of Qufu from the Ming and Qing dynasty to the Republican period,the paper establishes the drought and flood series from 1470-1990.And then,the paper analyzes the drought and flood timing feature.The results show that：（1）from the year of 1470 to 1990,the drought happened 3times per decade,and serious drought happened once every 13.6years.The flood happened once every 5years,and serious flood happened once every 15 years.（2）Majority drought（78.6%）happened in spring or summer,and majority flood（94%）happened in summer or autumn.（3）The frequency of drought/flood shows changes in volatility,through the analysis of drought/flood time characteristics,the sliding analysis shows that the climate turning points occur in 1662,1764 and 1874.Through wavelet analysis,the results show that there are 3scales at drought/flood periodicity：4years,16 years and 60 years.