基于指标体系的低碳试点城市评价

Evaluation on Low-carbon Pilot Cities Based on Indicators

我国已开展了两批低碳试点省区和试点城市工作,在不同发展阶段、具有不同资源禀赋和发展基础的地区,进行自下而上的低碳发展探索。科学、综合、权威、系统的指标体系有利于定量衡量城市的低碳发展现状,分析其发展特点,有助于有针对性地提出城市低碳发展的模式与实现途径。目前国内外主要机构和智库建立了诸多涉及到城市低碳发展相关的指标体系,尚没有能够直接用来科学权威、全面客观地对低碳试点城市的发展状况和发展模式进行定量评估的指标体系及相应数据。本文依据科学性、代表性、可操作性和普适性原则,建立起一套低碳城市指标体系,共选择10个指标,以分析城市低碳发展的现状与趋势、城市特点和低碳发展目标。本研究以36个低碳试点城市为例,基于经济和碳排放的核心指标进行聚类分析,将36个低碳试点城市划分为领先型、发展型、后发型和探索型四类,在广泛收集数据的基础上对低碳试点城市进行分类评估,并基于指标体系,分析了四类城市的特点、发展趋势,分别提出四类城市未来低碳发展的需求,从而提出差异化的低碳发展模式与发展途径。最后,研究提出全国分区域实现低碳发展的路线图。研究可为提出全国性的低碳发展政策指导、深化试点城市的低碳发展和实施相关的政策措施提供参考。

Two batches of low-carbon provinces and cities pilot project have been implemented in order to encourage bottom-up low- carbon development. A set of indicators with scientificity, comprehensiveness, authority and systematicness could benefit the exploration of low-carbon development path, optimization of economic structure so as to help cities to realize the low-carbon and sustainable development. There are various indicator systems built by foreign and domestic institutions and organizations which have relationship with city development. But there is lack of a set of indicator that could comprehensively, objectively and authoritatively describe low-carbon development status and path of Chinese cities with quantitative evaluation. This article tries to build a set of key indicators with principles of scientificity, representativeness, operability and universality. Ten indicators were selected in order to understand the social-economic development situation, carbon emission status and local characteristics. The 36 pilot cities are evaluated using the indicator and categorized into four types： frontier cities, developing cities, high emission cities and exploring cities. Suggestions on low-carbon development mode for each catalogue are put forward, based on the evaluation of their low-carbon development and future trend. Also a suggestion on step-by-step low-carbon roadmap to realize the emission peak target is put forward.