“四化”同步发展的实证检验及实现路径研究——以四川为例

Research on the Empirical Test and the Realization Path for Synchronous Development of “Four Modernizations”——A Case of Sichuan

运用Johansen协整理论及误差修正模型对1997~2013年四川＂四化＂之间的动态关系进行了实证研究,提出了四川实现＂四化＂同步发展的对策建议。研究显示：四川＂四化＂之间存在长期协整关系且呈同向发展态势。为了推进四川＂四化＂同步发展,必须通过产城一体促进工业化与城镇化同步发展、拉长产业链实现农业现代化与工业化有效衔接、合理规划促进农业现代化和农村城镇化就地实现、广泛运用信息技术实现信息化与其他＂三化＂深度融合。

This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship of＂Four Modernizations＂in Sichuan from 1997 to 2013 by using Johansen cointegration test and the Error Correction Model empirically and puts forward the countermeasures on how to realize synchronous development of＂Four Modernizations＂in Sichuan. The result shows that＂Four Modernizations＂in Sichuan are cointegratedly related in long term and their developmental trends are in the same direction. In order to further simultaneous development of ＂Four Modernizations＂in Sichuan,they must promote synchronous development of industrialization and urbanization by industry and city integration,extend the industrial chain to realize agricultural modernization and industrialization to be connected effectively,map out a plan rationally to promote agricultural modernization and rural urbanization to be realized locally and use information technology widely to promote the deepening integration both informationization and the other ＂Three Modernizations＂.