田湾核电站周围地区2001-2012年甲状腺癌发病分析

Analysis of incidence of thyroid cancer in the area around Tianwan Nuclear Power Plant from 2001 to 2012

目的分析2001-2012年田湾核电站周围地区甲状腺癌的发病情况及变化特点。方法 2001-2004年田湾核电站周围地区甲状腺癌病例资料通过回顾调查获得,2005-2012年甲状腺癌病例资料从连云港市恶性肿瘤登记系统中提取。计算甲状腺癌的发病率、标化率、变化百分比（percent change,PC）和年均变化百分比（annual percent change,APC）等指标。结果 2001-2012年田湾核电站周围地区共新发甲状腺癌525例,粗发病率为5.65/10万,标化率为4.33/10万。其中,男性粗发病率为2.89/10万,标化率为2.38/10万;女性粗发病率为8.52/10万,标化率为6.31/10万;男、女发病比为1∶2.95,χ2=130.43,P〈0.001。2002-2012年甲状腺癌发病率呈明显上升趋势（t=3.66,P=0.005）,男、女发病率变化趋势和全人群相似。2002-2012年甲状腺癌APC为7.97%,PC为104.55%。2001-2004年（装料前）甲状腺癌发病率无明显变化趋势,t=-2.14,P=0.166;核电站周围0~4、5~8、9~15和16~30km 4个区域甲状腺癌发病率也差异无统计学意义,χ2=4.72,P=0.094。2005-2012年（装料后运行期）甲状腺癌发病率也无明显变化趋势,t=0.79,P=0.460;核电站周围0~4、5~8、9~15和16~30km 4个区域甲状腺癌发病率差异也无统计学意义,χ2=7.09,P=0.064。结论尚未发现田湾核电站电离辐射与周围地区人群甲状腺癌有关联。

OBJECTIVE To analyze the incidence of thyroid cancer in the area around Tianwan Nuclear Power Plant from 2001 to 2012.METHODS Diagnosed thyroid cancer cases from 2001 to 2004were obtained by retrospective survey.Diagnosed from 2005 to 2012 were extracted from Lianyungang cancer registry system.The incidence of thyroid cancer,age-standardized incidence by Chinese population,percentage change（PC）and annual percentage change（APC）of incidence were calculated.RESULTS There were 525 cases diagnosed as thyroid cancer in the area around Tianwan Nuclear Power Plant from 2001 to 2012.The crude incidence of thyroid cancer was 5.65/105,and the Chinese age-standard rate was 4.33/105.Among males,the crude incidence was 2.89/105,and the age-standard rate was 2.38/105.Among females,the crude incidence was 8.52/105 and the age-standard rate was 6.31/105.The sex ratio was 1∶2.95（χ2=130.43,P〈0.001）.From 2002 to 2012,the incidence of thyroid cancer increased significantly（t=3.66,P=0.005）,and the change among males and females was similar.The annual percentage change（APC）of thyroid cancer was 7.97%,and the percentage change（PC）of thyroid cancer was 104.55% from 2002 to 2012.From 2001 to 2004（before the nuclear power added fuel）,there was no significant change in the incidence of thyroid cancer（t=-2.14,P=0.166）,no significant difference was observed in the incidence of thyroid cancer between 0-4km and 5-8km and 9-15 km and 16-30 km around Tianwan nuclear power plant（χ2=4.72,P=0.094）.From 2005 to 2012（after the nuclear power station operated）,there was no significant change in the incidence of thyroid cancer（t=0.79,P=0.460）,and no significant difference in the incidence of thyroid cancer among the area of 0-4km,5-8km,9-15 km,and 16-30 km around Tianwan Nuclear Power Plant either（χ2=7.09,P=0.064）.CONCLUSION In the area around Tianwan Nuclear Power Plant,no evidence indicates that the nuclear power plant has affected the incidence of thyroid cancer.