东南亚国家综合城市化水平差异特征及驱动因素

Different Characteristics and Driving Factors of the Comprehensive Urbanization Levels of Countries in Southeast Asia

从人口-经济-社会三维视角构建东南亚城市化水平的综合评价体系,利用熵技术法评价综合城市化水平,分析其区域差异特征,判断发展阶段;研究东南亚人口城市化与经济-社会城市化之间的相互关系,划分城市化类型区;基于灰色关联度判断东南亚综合城市化水平差异的主要驱动因素和影响强度。结果表明:经济城市化子系统在东南亚地区综合城市化评价体系中最为重要;东南亚各国间综合城市化水平差异显著,新加坡、文莱、马来西亚为高综合城市化水平国家,泰国、印度尼西亚、菲律宾为中等综合城市化水平国家,柬埔寨、缅甸、老挝、越南为低综合城市化水平国家;人口城市化超前区与滞后区并存,其中人口城市化超前的国家最多;全球化、市场环境、外资驱动等外部动力是东南亚国家综合城市化水平差异的核心驱动因素。

Urbanization in Southeast Asia, which is in a rapid development stage, presents significant regional inequality. In this study, a comprehensive system was constructed to evaluate the urbanization levels of the countries in Southeast Asia from the three-dimensional perspective of： population-economy-society. Entropy technology was adopted to evaluate the comprehensive urbanization levels of 10 countries in Southeast Asia and the levels of their subsystems. Urbanization type regions were constructed according to the relationship between population urbanization and economic-social urbanization. Finally, each driving factor of the differences between the comprehensive urbanization levels was evaluated based on gray correlation degree. The results show that： 1） economy is a major subtype reflecting the comprehensive urbanization level of a country in Southeast Asia; 2） countries in Southeast Asia present significantly different characteristics in their comprehensive urbanization levels with primary, middle and maturity stages of urbanization coexisting; 3） regions of high-level coordinated development and those of low level and lagging behind coexist in the population-economic-social urbanization of Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, over-populated urbanization regions and under-populated ones coexist; 4） the main driving factors of the different comprehensive urbanization levels in Southeast Asia are globalization, market circumstance and foreign investment, which are external forces.